nhl projections
resolve nhl
2026-27 season projections — 1,196 skaters, 132 goalies, 32-team standings. EB shrinkage with half-life decay across 2021-22 → 2025-26.
the ways in
how the model has held up, across the site
85%of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly29 of 34 · projections locked 4 days before kickoff · outperformed market consensus
RPS 0.171World Cup ranked-probability scoretighter than the bookmaker-calibrated international band (0.20–0.22)
54%hit rate on 165 NBA playoff callsbeat the closing market
These are the model's results wherever it has been scored so far. Per sport numbers replace them as each sport builds up a record.
what has changed
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
Skaters, games, teams, rookies, and goalies are projected by their own layer instead of one big model — goalies get separate treatment because save percentage swings wildly without anchoring to team save quality first. The skater impact layer fits roughly a million 5-on-5 shifts to make sure credit goes to the right player.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.