nhl projections
resolve nhl
2026-27 season projections — 1,196 skaters, 132 goalies, 32-team standings. EB shrinkage with half-life decay across 2021-22 → 2025-26.
release notes
2026-06-27
release notes
v1.0: Methodology locked. Blurb shipped.
2026-06-27
methodology writeups
Skaters, games, teams, rookies, and goalies are projected by their own layer instead of one big model — goalies get separate treatment because save percentage swings wildly without anchoring to team save quality first. The skater impact layer fits roughly a million 5-on-5 shifts to make sure credit goes to the right player.
soon
model retrospectives
what we predicted vs. what happened. honest walk-backs included.
how the projections have held up
85%
of decisive World Cup group-stage matches projected correctly
RPS 0.171
World Cup ranked-probability score
54%
hit rate on 165 NBA playoff calls