nhl projections
box scores
Season projections per skater (goals, assists, points, shots, power-play points, penalty minutes, plus-minus) and per goalie (save percentage, projected saves, goals against). Ridge regression per stat, anchored to prior-season performance by a weighted prior.
Skater Projections
2026-27 season · sorted by points| loading… |
Methodology
ridge per stat · weighted prior · set before the seasonInputs: 5-feature substrate per stat — recent rate, season-rate (prior season), age-adjusted regression baseline, role/usage context, and team-context.
Coverage: 715 skaters (any C/L/R/D with 2025-26 NHL games) and 98 goalies (any tendies with non-trivial 2025-26 starts). Goalies use a weighted prior — SV% projection blends current-season Ridge output with prior-season anchor to avoid early-season volatility blowing up projections.
When: set before the season, from 2025-26 games.
Sanity checks: the points leaders are the league's known top scorers, and the save percentage leaders are established starters. The table above is the live order.
v2 roadmap (banked): 2026-27 schedule auto-pull when available, line-pair / PP-unit features, goalie GP floor, rookie overlay (N05), per-projection CI from Ridge variance + holdout MAE.