Per-Skater + Per-Goalie Projections — 2026-27
Season-projection per skater (G/A/P/SOG/PPP/PIM/+−) and per goalie (SV%, projected saves, GA). Methodology: Ridge regression per stat with weighted prior anchoring projections to prior-season performance. McDavid 114.5 / Kucherov 111.2 / Draisaitl 110.1 / Hughes 101.2 / Celebrini 92.6 (sophomore breakout reflected).
Skater Projections
2026-27 season · sorted by pointsMethodology
ridge per stat · weighted prior · refreshed dailyInputs: 5-feature substrate per stat — recent rate, season-rate (prior season), age-adjusted regression baseline, role/usage context, and team-context.
Coverage: 715 skaters (any C/L/R/D with 2025-26 NHL games) and 98 goalies (any tendies with non-trivial 2025-26 starts). Goalies use a weighted prior — SV% projection blends current-season Ridge output with prior-season anchor to avoid early-season volatility blowing up projections.
Refresh cadence: daily 04:30 via the sports_lines cron, picking up roster moves, injury updates, in-season form shifts.
Sanity checks pass: McDavid #1 P (114.5), Kucherov #2 (111.2), Draisaitl #3 (110.1), Hughes #4 (101.2), Celebrini #6 (92.6 — sophomore breakout reflected). Caufield #1 G at 39.3. Hellebuyck / Sorokin / Shesterkin top SV% cluster.
v2 roadmap (banked): 2026-27 schedule auto-pull when available, line-pair / PP-unit features, goalie GP floor, rookie overlay (N05), per-projection CI from Ridge variance + holdout MAE.